BRIEF NOTE ON THE PROJECT "ESTABLISHING AND NETWORKING OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE CENTRES IN INDIA"
Maize and Bengalgram rabi pre-harvest 2011-12 Telugu
Maize and bengalgram rabi pre-harvest 2011-12 English
Rabi pre-harvest 2011-12 Telugu
Rabi pre-harvest 2011-12 English
Kharif Preharvest 2011-12 English
Kharif Preharvest 2011-12 Telugu
Rabi Presowing 2011-12 English
Rabi Presowing 2011-12 Telugu
Chilli price english information
Chilli price telugu information
Coconut price english information
Coconut price telugu information
2011-12 Kharif Pre-Sowing Price Forecasts Telugu Version
Cotton Price Information
Groundnut Harvest
Maize Price Information
Redgram Price Information
Soyabean Price Information
Sunflower Price information no-change
Turmeric Price Information
Red Chillies price to increase English version
Red Chillies price to increase Telugu version
Gingelly English Information
Gingelly Telugu Information
Maize Press Note
Sunflower and Groundnut
Turmeric English
Pulses, Oilseeds, Maize and Turmeric
Cotton Telugu for Kharif pre harvest
Cotton English for Kharif pre harvest
Agricultural Market Intelligence - Telugu Version
Maize Information - Telugu Version
Sesamum Press Report
In a country like India with 70 percent of its population living in about 6.25 lakh villages and depending on agriculture as their main occupation, accurate and timely market intelligence about the market prices of the agricultural commodities is of extreme significance.
Market information and intelligence are crucial to enable farmers and traders to make informed decisions about what to grow, when to harvest, to which markets produce should be sent, and whether to store it or not. The most important marketing intelligence need of the farmer is price intelligence. Agricultural price data are based on thousands or millions of transactions, many of them on a small scale, that are taking place everyday all over the country. Collecting an adequate sample and making sure that these are representative enough to be useful is not an easy task. As farmers become more market oriented, extension workers need to be in a position to advise them not only on how to grow crops but also on how to market them. Knowledge of produce handling, storage and packaging is also essential.
When landholdings are small and the overall economic development has matured beyond the basic food needs, farmers face market risks and they opt for diversifying away from grains towards higher value commodities and products. In some states a smaller land holding size and favorable agro-ecology push stockholders to diversify away from food grain and toward higher value commodities such as horticultural products demanded by more sophisticated consumers, both domestic and international.
In order to be successful in marketing high value products, stakeholders need to understand consumer preferences, prices and markets; they need to organize the supply chain from producers to consumers; and they need to make investment, production and marketing decisions based on reliable market intelligence. Most farmers today still lack a good understanding and capacity to use market intelligence in guiding their production and marketing decisions.
Recent advances in information technology are making it more feasible to provide farmers with the marketing information they need. However farmers may not benefit from sophisticated facilities, if the system is poorly managed or not designed for their needs. It is not enough for marketing information to be collected; it must also be disseminated in a form accessible to famers and adapted to their needs.
In India existing agricultural market information services frequently fall short in one or more areas. In many cases shortcomings occur because the service is not relevant to the needs of the users, or because it is targeted primarily at policymakers, with insufficient attention paid to the needs of farmers and traders. Much effort is therefore spent on the collection of the information, but only a little attention is paid in timely reporting of the information collected, or to reporting the information in a manner, which is useful to farmers and traders.
Establishing and Networking of Agricultural Market Intelligence Centers are the need of the hour, because among the Indian States, consumption and cultural patterns are similar. All the Indian States depend on interstate trade for major agricultural and horticultural commodities like rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, cotton, and fruits like banana, mango, and entire range of vegetables. For example Tamil Nadu depends on Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh for rice, while Karnataka depends on Tamil Nadu for coarse grains and turmeric. Vegetables are daily transported from Bangalore and nearby areas to Coimbatore market of Tamil Nadu and then to Kerala. Kerala maximum depends on Tamil Nadu for vegetables and rice. Cotton comes from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka to Tamil Nadu mills. Similar is the case with wheat. Hence dissemination of market information (demand, production and prices) plays a vital role in the functioning of the whole market, by harmonizing the competitive marketing process. By helping ensure that produce goes to markets where there is a demand for it, it shortens marketing channels and cuts down on transport costs. It helps to ensure that each marketing transaction is a fair one, and that all participants share the risks and benefits.
The project entitled “Establishing and Networking of Market Intelligence Centres in India” has been launched under NAIP component I on a consortium mode, with Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore as the Consortium Leader, with ANGR Agricultural University, Hyderabad, along with 10 SAUs in India as the Cooperating Consortium Partners. The project is borne out of the realization that market information and intelligence are crucial to enable farmers and traders to make informed decisions. The most important marketing information input needed by a farmer in the current scenario is the price intelligence. Hence, the Market Intelligence Centre at S.V.Agricultural College, A N G R Agricultural University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh has been assigned the task of providing price intelligence on 16 crops
The specific objectives assigned are:
- Providing price forecasts before sowing and during harvesting of selected farm commodities.
- making available product intelligence to all stakeholders
- providing information on high price markets to producers
- improving the dissemination of market intelligence
- increasing the capacity to absorb and use such market intelligence by all stakeholders
- developing commodity market outlook for selected commodities at state level
- providing commodity market research reports
It is against this background that the benchmark survey of 100 farmers is conducted to assess their initial status.
Consortium: Lead Centre – Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore
Name of the Participating Consortia:
- Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur, Kerala
- University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, Karnataka
- University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad, Karnataka
- Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad
- Dr.Panjab Rao Desmukh Krishi Vidyathi, Akola, Maharastra
- Junagadh Agricultural Universtiy, Junagadh, Gujarat
- Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab
- G B Pant Agricultural Universtiy, Pant Nagar, Uttranchal
- CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hissar
- Maharana Pratap University of Agriculture and Technology, Udaipur
Crops allotted to ANGRAU:
Paddy, Maize, Groundnut, Sunflower, Gingelly, Coconut, Soybean, Black gram, Red gram, Bengal gram, Turmeric, Chillies, Cotton, Onion, Tomato and Brinjal.
In 2009-10 the price forecasts were released from the centre for chillies, groundnut and sunflower and three trainings were conducted, one for Agricultural Officers and two for farmers.
In 2010-11, seven Kharif pre-sowing forecasts were released and two trainings, one each for officers and farmers, were conducted. In every year 30 trainings (15 for farmers and 15 for officers) should be conducted.
Dissemination: The forecasts are disseminated through news papers, KVKs, IFFCO Voice SMS (3.6 lakh farmers), Dept. of Agriculture, Dept. of Marketing, All India Radio,market committees etc.
PRICE FORECASTS: 2009-10
The native home of chillies is considered to be Tropical America especially Brazil, where it is still found growing in a wild state. It is specially liked for its pungency, spicy taste besides the appealing color it adds to the food. It forms an indispensable adjunct in every house in the tropical world as leading producer of the chilli crop in the world; India is also the largest exporter of the commodity. The major chilli exporting players are India (25%), China(24%), Spain(17%), Mexico(8%), Pakisthan(7.2%), Morocco(7%) and Turkey(4.5%). World trade in chillies account for an approximate of 16% in total spice trade. This share places chilli in the second position ofter black pepper.
In India its production level hovers around 1.2 million tons annually. In the country Andhra Pradesh with 53 per cent in chilli production occupies first position followed by Karnataka (13%), Maharashtra (9%), Orissa (7%), Tamil Nadu (7%) and Madhya Pradesh(2%). Guntur, Warangal, Khammam, Prakasam, Kurnool and Krishna districts contribute nearly 80 per cent of chilli production in Andhra Pradesh.
As per trade sources the area under chilli has increased by 10 per cent in Andhra Pradesh compared to last year.
Indian chilli is exported to Srilanka, Mexico, U.S, Nepal, Bangladesh and Gulf countries.According to the reports from the Spices Board, India exported 1,66,000 tonnes of red chilli during the period from April to August 2009 valued at Rs. 947.35 crore as against 1,76,255 tonnes valued at Rs. 940.12 crore during the same period in the previous year.
In Andhra Pradesh, in all the chilli growing districts chilli nurseries are sown normally from July 15 with the transplantation coming up in September last week or October first week. The harvesting commences from January and lasts up to April. But this year in Guntur district the sowings were delayed by about 15 to 20 days.
In Andhra Pradesh the harvest season of chilli commences in January and lasts up to March/April. Peak arrivals will be in the months of March and April. Generally December and January are the lean months of arrivals. The transactions will be medium from May to November.
According to the trade sources, there will be a marginal fall in the production of chillies this year because of delayed transplantations in Guntur district. Econometric analysis of 18 years monthly data on prices of red chillies that prevailed in Guntur market was carried out. This is the largest chilli market in the world. The analysis was carried out to predict the prices of chillies for the months commencing from November 2009 to July 2010, by the market Intelligence Centre of Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural university, Tirupati under NAIP Project. The results of the analysis revealed that the prices will move around Rs. 5000 to Ra. 5300 per quintal during November and December 2009 and January 2010. The prices will start declining from February 2010 till June 2010 (Rs. 4800-Rs.4500/ qtl) due to supply pressure after which the prices will increase. Hence the farmers are advised to dispose the available stocks before January 2010, otherwise they can store up to July 2010 to get better price.
The groundnut plant is believed to have originated in the South American Continent, primarily in the tropical areas of Peru. Groundnut is one of the vastly produced oilseed crop in the world as it is cultivated in more than 100 countries in the world and that is why it is referred to as a universal crop. In addition to oil extraction, it is used for making edible products for human consumption, protein rich meal, and fodder for livestock. Groundnut or peanut is commonly called the poor man’s nut.
World groundnut production stood at 34.43 Million tonnes in 2007-08 and India with 6.25 mi. tonnes is the second largest producer after China (14.3million tonnes), USA (2.34million tonnes), Nigeria (1.55million tonnes), Indonesia (1.25million tonnes), Sudan (0.85million tonnes), Senegal (0.71million tonnes), Argentina (0.58million tonnes), and Vietnam (0.5million tonnes). India and China together are the world’s leading groundnut producers accounting for nearly 60 per cent of the production and India’s share is about 18 per cent in total world production.
The major exporters of groundnut are Indonesia (45 per cent), Philippines (16 per cent), Malaysia (14 per cent), Persian Gulf (5 per cent) and U K (4 per cent).
In India its production is 91.82 lakh tonnes. Among the states, Andhra Pradesh with 28 per cent after Gujarat (36%) occupies second position followed by Tamil Nadu (11%), Karnataka (8%), Rajasthan (5%), Maharashtra (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (2%). Anantapur, Kurnool, Chittoor, Kadapa and Mahabubnagar districts contribute nearly 80 per cent of the groundnut production in Andhra Pradesh with a production of 15.52 lakh tonnes.
In Andhra Pradesh, in all the groundnut growing districts are sown normally from June to July in kharif and November to December in rabi. In Andhra Pradesh, kharif sowings take place in June-July. In kharif under rainfed conditions the area normally stands at around 10.5 lakh ha. About 2 lakh ha of area is found under rabi groundnut (irrigated in the state). Late onset of monsoon and intermittent dry spells resulted in a dip in production by about 30 to 40 per cent during kharif 2009-10.
To forecast the prices of groundnut for the months of January, February and March 2010, econometric analysis of modal prices of groundnut in Kurnool market for a period of 12 years was carried out, the results of which indicated that prices are likely to be around Rs. 2400 to 2600 per quintal. It is recommended that farmers can dispose groundnut immediately after harvest instead of storing. This forecast holds good with current market sentiments and is subjected to change with changes in the market situation.
The groundnut plant is believed to have originated in the South American Continent, primarily in the tropical areas of Peru. Groundnut is one of the vastly produced oilseed crop in the world as it is cultivated in more than 100 countries in the world and that is why it is referred to as a universal crop. In addition to oil extraction, it is used for making edible products for human consumption, protein rich meal, and fodder for livestock. Groundnut or peanut is commonly called the poor man’s nut.
World groundnut production stood at 34.43 Million tonnes in 2007-08 and India with 6.25 mi. tonnes is the second largest producer after China (14.3million tonnes), USA (2.34million tonnes), Nigeria (1.55million tonnes), Indonesia (1.25million tonnes), Sudan (0.85million tonnes), Senegal (0.71million tonnes), Argentina (0.58million tonnes), and Vietnam (0.5million tonnes). India and China together are the world’s leading groundnut producers accounting for nearly 60 per cent of the production and India’s share is about 18 per cent in total world production.
The major exporters of groundnut are Indonesia (45 per cent), Philippines (16 per cent), Malaysia (14 per cent), Persian Gulf (5 per cent) and U K (4 per cent).
In India its production is 91.82 lakh tonnes. Among the states, Andhra Pradesh with 28 per cent after Gujarat (36%) occupies second position followed by Tamil Nadu (11%), Karnataka (8%), Rajasthan (5%), Maharashtra (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (2%). Anantapur, Kurnool, Chittoor, Kadapa and Mahabubnagar districts contribute nearly 80 per cent of the groundnut production in Andhra Pradesh with a production of 15.52 lakh tonnes.
In Andhra Pradesh, in all the groundnut growing districts are sown normally from June to July in kharif and November to December in rabi. In Andhra Pradesh, kharif sowings take place in June-July. In kharif under rainfed conditions the area normally stands at around 10.5 lakh ha. About 2 lakh ha of area is found under rabi groundnut (irrigated in the state). Late onset of monsoon and intermittent dry spells resulted in a dip in production by about 30 to 40 per cent during kharif 2009-10.
To forecast the prices of groundnut for the months of January, February and March 2010, econometric analysis of modal prices of groundnut in Kurnool market for a period of 12 years was carried out, the results of which indicated that prices are likely to be around Rs. 2400 to 2600 per quintal. It is recommended that farmers can dispose groundnut immediately after harvest instead of storing. This forecast holds good with current market sentiments and is subjected to change with changes in the market situation.
PRICE FORECASTS: 2010-11
Cotton belongs to genus Gosypium having 20 species among which 16 are wild type with short seed fuzz and 4 are cultivable with spinnable lint. The plant is a shrub native to tropical and sub tropical regions around the world, including the America, India and Africa. Cotton was first cultivated seven thousand years ago, by the inhabitants of the Indus valley civilization. Cotton is one of the principal crops of the country and is the major raw material for domestic textile industry. Cotton, often referred as ‘white gold’ has been in cultivation in India for more than five thousand years. Though synthetic or man- made fibers have made inroads in many countries in the world, cotton deserves the prime position in India constituting more than 70% of the total fiber consumption in the textile sector. The economic reforms and the trade policy liberalization carried out during the last decade with a view of globalizing the Indian economy have exposed the Indian cotton textile industry to a new challenge. Cotton is a cash crop and its lint fiber is used in textile industry, seed oil is used for the manufacture of vanaspathi, flour is used for making bread and biscuit, cotton seed cake is used as organic manure, cotton is used in stuffing pillows, cushions, mattresses, rubber tyres, carpet, blankets, cordages and fatty acids obtained from the oil are used in the manufacture of insecticides and fungicides. Cotton is a basic raw material for cellulose industries.
India is playing an ever- important role in the world’s cotton market. In India cotton is grown over an area of about 9 million hectares and provides livelihood for over 4 million farming families. Several ancillary industries like fertilizer, pesticides, agrochemicals, dyeing industries etc. depend on cotton. According to Foreign agriculture service, world cotton area was 30.74 million hectares and production stood at 107.5 million bales (480 lb) and productivity 761 Kg. per hectare in 2008-09. India occupies first position with an area of 9.41 million hectares and with 30.59 per cent of the total world area in 2008-09 followed by China (19.50%), United States (9.94%), Pakistan (9.42%), Uzbekistan (4.61%) and Brazil (2.73%) and these countries cover 76.79 per cent of the total world cotton area where as in production India has produced around 22.6 million bales (480 lb) and with 21.02 per cent in total world production after China (34.13%) followed by United States (11.90%), Pakistan(8.37%), Brazil (5.11%) and Uzbekistan(4.27%) and these countries contribute 84.8 percent of the total world production. The productivity in India was 523 Kg. per hectare in 2008-09.
Total cotton consumption in the world was 111.1 million of bales in 2008-09. India’s total consumption of 17.9 million bales with 16.11 per cent after China (40.50%) occupied second position in total world consumption followed by Pakistan (10.35%), Turkey (4.50%), Brazil (3.78%) and United States (3.24%) in 2008-09.
India is the second largest exporter of cotton after the US. India’s exports reached 7.51, 9.94, 15.31, 5.14 and 14.81 tonnes in 2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-2010 (USDA). Major export destinations are Bangladesh, Pakistan, China and other far-east countries.
Among the states in India, Andhra Pradesh with an area of 13.19 lakh hectares (14.24 per cent) after Maharashtra(33.83%) and Gujarat(26.10%) occupies third position followed by Madhya Pradesh (6.94%), Punjab(6.05%) and Haryana(4.53%) and these states cover about 92 per cent of the total area where as in the production front , Andhra Pradesh with 35.69 lakh bales (170 kg) (16.02 per cent) after Gujarat(31.48%) and Maharashtra(21.33%) occupies the third position followed by Punjab(10.26%), Madhya Pradesh(3.84%) and Haryana(8.34%) and these states contribute 91.27 per cent of the total production in India.
During the past three years, Indian cotton scenario has changed dramatically, largely due to the adoption of Bt cotton. In Andhra Pradesh total area was 13, 29,976 hectares in 2009 and major growing districts are Adilabad (21.96%), Karimnagar (15.52%), Warangal (12.89%), Guntur (11.41%), Khammam (9.26%) and Nalgonda (8.75%) and these districts cover about 80 per cent of total area. In Andhra Pradesh, cotton is sown normally during June and July months and harvesting starts from October month and the arrivals are peak in the months of October, November and December and medium in January and February months and generally lean from March to June.
To know harvest prices of cotton, econometric analysis of modal prices of cotton in Warangal market for a period of 13 years was undertaken by the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) in the Dept. of Agricultural Economic, S.V.Agricultural College; Tirupati. The outcome of the analysis along with traders’ survey has indicated that the cotton price per quintal will be ranging from Rs.3100 to Rs.3300 during harvest. The indication to the farmers is that popular long staple Bt2 hybrids which are resistant to heliothis and tobacco caterpillar will be better ones. They are advised to grow trap crop (non-Bt) in two rows around the field. One or two sprayings of systemic insecticides are advised against sucking pests.
Based on the above forecasted price they can take a decision on sowing of cotton, area allotment and the like.
Groundnut is one of the vastly produced oilseed crops as it is cultivated in more than 100 countries in the world and that is why it is referred to as a universal crop. In addition to oil extraction, it is used for making edible products for human consumption, protein rich meal, and fodder for livestock. Groundnut or peanut is commonly called the poor man’s nut.
World groundnut production stood at 34.51 million tonnes in 2008-09 and India with 6.25 million tonnes is the second largest producer after China (14.3million tonnes). India and China together are the world’s leading groundnut producers accounting for nearly 60 per cent of the production and India’s share is about 18 per cent in total world production.
The major exporters of groundnut are Indonesia (45 per cent), Philippines (16 per cent), Malaysia (14 per cent), Persian Gulf (5 per cent) and U K (4 per cent).
Among the states, Andhra Pradesh with 28 per cent after Gujarat (36%) occupies second position and followed by Tamil Nadu (11%), Karnataka (8%), Rajasthan (5%), Maharashtra (5%) and Madhya Pradesh (2%). Anantapur, Kurnool, Chittoor, Kadapa and Mahabubnagar districts contribute nearly 80 per cent of the groundnut production in Andhra Pradesh with a production of 15.52 lakh tonnes.
In Andhra Pradesh, groundnut is sown normally from June to July in kharif and November to December in rabi in all the groundnut growing districts. In kharif under rainfed conditions the area normally stands at around 10.5 lakh ha. About 2 lakh ha of area is found under rabi groundnut (irrigated in the state).
To take sowing decisions in June-July it is essential to have an idea about the groundnut price that might prevail during harvesting period. To help the farmers to take a right sowing decision AMIC functioning in the Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V.Agrl.College, Tirupathi has come forward.
To forecast the prices of groundnut for the harvesting month (October 2010), econometric analysis of modal prices of groundnut that prevailed Kurnool market for a period of 13 years and Yemmiganoor market for a period of 11 years was attempted.
Also the international prices of edible oils, Government policy on oil imports and traders’ opinion along with the estimated prices were taken into account. Based on all these it is expected that the groundnut price per quintal will be ranging from Rs. 2600 to Rs.2800 during the harvesting period (October 2010). The farmers can benefit from varieties, like K6, Narayani and Grishma. The farmers are advised to adopt intercropping with redgram or castor for minimizing risk. Further, application of zypsum during flowering stage to enhance oil content should not be ignored.
Maize is the world’s third crop after wheat and rice. World’ maize area was 158.19 million hectares with a production of 798.02 million tonnes (2008-09). The major maize growing countries are United States (31.80m.ha), China (29.86m.ha), Brazil (14.10m.ha), EU-27(8.79m.ha), India (8.20m.ha), Mexico (7.32m.ha), Nizeria (4.70m.ha) and Argentina (2.50m.ha) and these countries covered nearly 70 per cent of total world maize area. The production levels are US(307.14m. tons), China(165.90m.tonnes), EU-27(62.51m.tons), Brazil(51m.tons), Mexico(24.23m.tons), India(19.73m.tons), Argentina(15m.tons) and Nigeria (7.97m.tons) and these countries are contributing about 82 per cent of total production in the world. In the year 2007-08, top exporters in the global market are US(65%), Argentina(15%), Brazil(11%), Paraguay(2%), South Africa(2%) and India remained in the exporter’s list at the sixth place by exporting 7 lakh tones that came to 1 per cent from India’s total production. In importers list major quantity is imported by Japan (17%) followed by EU-27(11%), Mexico (10%), Korea (9%) and Egypt (6%) and all these countries accounted for 53 per cent of the total imports.
Global maize production is likely to be a record 822 million tonnes in the year 2010-11 season, up from 807 million tonnes last season, due to improved prospects in the US, Mexico and parts of Africa, according to International Grains Council (IGC). The maize production forecast for 2010-11 is increased by 15m.tonnes to a record 822m.tonnes. It is however, noted that despite this increase, demand will overshoot the projected supply of 822m. tonnes by 4m. tonnes at 826m. tonnes during the year. The world maize consumption is projected to rise by 2 per cent in 2010-11 to a record 826 m. tonnes, against 812 m. tonnes last year.
India ranks among the top 10 of world’s maize producers, indeed, in our country, maize is an exceptional success story among generally poorly performing cereals. Acreage and output have been steadily rising. Currently, this coarse grain is cultivated in about 8 million hectares and the yield is approximately 2.3 tonnes a hectare. Less than a quarter of the planted area is irrigated.
Although the cereal is produced virtually across the country, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Rajasthan are the top producing states. Cultivated mainly in the kharif season, maize recorded an output of 19.7m.tonnes in 2008-09. There is tremendous scope for raising yields through improved input management and agronomic practices. The crop is susceptible to vagaries of monsoon. No wonder, total production in 2009-10 declined to 17.3m.tonnes following inadequate precipitation last year.
In Andhra Pradesh total area under maize was around 8.52 lakh ha and production was 41.52 lakh tonnes with a productivity of 4873 kg/ha (2008-09). Karimnagar(13.17%), Medak(12.72%), Nizamabad(12.46%), Mahabubnagar(10.83%), Guntur(10.51%), Warangal(8.79%) and West Godavari(6.04%) districts contribute 80 per cent of the total maize production in Andhra Pradesh. In Andhra Pradesh, maize is sown normally from June 15th to July 15th in kharif in all the maize growing districts and October to November in rabi in Rayalaseema and Telangana regions and October to January in coastal region. Kharif harvest is from September to November and in rabi from February to May. Peak arrivals hit from October to December and March to April, medium in January to February and the arrivals are lean during June to August. Maize price mainly depends upon demand for poultry feed, rainfall factors, production and export demand.
To forecast the prices of maize during the harvest period (September-October, 2010) Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning at S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati has undertaken econometric analysis of modal prices of maize at the key market of Nizamabad. The results of the analysis indicated that the price per quintal will range between Rs.850-Rs.900 during September-October, 2010. To arrive at the forecast, along with the mathematical modeling, traders’ survey and commodity futures are also considered. Maize hybrids are extensively cultivated by the farmers. Based on their experience the farmers can choose the hybrids of their choice. They are advised to sow hybrids which could yield bold grains.
Pulses in India are traditionally considered as residual crops only suitable for growing under rain fed conditions. There has been no great technology breakthrough in pulses. Equally, no aggressive plan commensurate with the crisis is in place for pulses. Inadequate pest and nutrient management had led to lower yields and there are issues such as farmers’ perception of risk and cost, the absence of the Government procurement, lack of high yielding varieties of seed and poor farm infrastructure. India is not only the largest consumer and importer of the pulses, but domestic demand for pulses outstrips production of around 15 million tonnes yearly by around three million tonnes. Myanmar produces 2.7 million tonnes of pulses annually while the domestic consumption is only 0.5 million tonnes, making it an ideal exporter to a pulses-thirsty India.
Redgram is an important pulse crop in India ranks sixth among pulses production in the world. World production of Redgram was 3.2 million tonnes in 2005 from 4.5 million hectares. India is the largest producer of redgram constituting 75% of world production and a stagnant production in the country reflects in global output. Other major countries are Myanmar, Kenya, Uganda and Malawi. Among these Myanmar contributes 15%, while other countries have very small share in world production. Myanmar annually produces about 5 lakh tonnes and India is the major export market for this country. Other producing countries in African continent have no large market surplus to trade in international market. India is also the major consuming country and constitutes 90% of global redgram consumption. India annually imports 2-3 lakh tones of which 95% is from Myanmar. Other sources of imports are Tanzania, Kenya and Pakistan. India also exports small quantity of tur to countries like USA, UAE, Singapore and Malaysia, but ratio of imports to exports is higher and increasing over a period of time.
Redgram is second largest pulse crop in India accounting about 20 percent of total pulse production. India annually produces about 2.0 - 2.5 million tonnes and stagnant in the past 10 years. The shift in cultivation from pulses to commercial crops and lack of technological innovations to increase yields has hindered the rise in output. The area sown under crop in India was 2.19 million hectares in the year 2008 – 09 and the production was 2.31 million tonnes with a productivity of 791 kg/ha. In India, Andhra Pradesh occupies seventh place in production (7 percent only) and the major producing states are Maharastra, Uttar Pradesh (14%), Orissa (12%) and Karnataka (11%). Among these, Maharastra is the largest producer of tur which constitutes about 34% and these four states contribute nearly 71% of total output in the country. The major trading centers of tur are Mumbai, Indore, Lathur, Delhi, Harpur, Gulbarga etc.,
In Andhra Pradesh, total area under the crop was 4.48 lakh hectares with a production of 2.01 lakh tonnes from a productivity of 454 Kg/ha in 2008-09. Major growing districts are Mahabubnagar, Adilabad, Prakasam, Rangareddy, Kurnool, Nalgonda and Guntur covering nearly 66 per cent of the area. In Andhra Pradesh, redgram is sown normally in June and July months and harvested in December and January months. The arrivals are good from December to February and lean in during March to April.
To forecast the prices of redgram for the month of December 2010, econometric analysis of modal prices in Thandur market for a period of 12 years was carried out by Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC), S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati. Based on the traders’ survey coupled with the results of the econometric analysis it is estimated that the price per quintal of redgram would be ranging from Rs.3800 – Rs. 4200 during the harvest period. Based on this forecasted price farmers could take their decision on sowing of redgram including the area allotment. Sowings should be completed in June as a sole crop. LRG-41 is suited for Rayalaseema, Telangana and Coastal areas. TRG-21 is a newly released wilt tolerant variety for Rayalaseema. For wilt and sterility mosaic endemic areas of Mahaboobnagar and Nalgonda districts ICPL 87199 is a better option.
As the leading producer of chilli crop in the world, India is also the largest exporter of the commodity. Indian chilli is exported to Srilanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia, etc. There has been a steady rise in the export of chilli as the value of the exports increased from Rs. 499 crore during 2004-05 to Rs. 1081 crores for 2008-09. For 2009-10 the market sources putforth the figure at Rs. 1200 crore. Particularly in the domestic markets with the advent of hybrids there are other states competing with Andhra Pradesh compelling the state to exploit the overseas markets. The share of the state in chilli exports approximately stands at 70 per cent. The largest chilli market in Asia is Guntur and this market receives arrivals from the important chilli districts of Andhra Pradesh viz., Prakasam, Kurnool, Nalgonda, Nizamabad etc. Guntur occupies such a prominent place in chillies, it prompted the government to select one of the proposed spices parks in Guntur, as the very objective of the park is to establish common infrastructural facilities to empower spice farmers. According to the trade sources the area under chillies in the state is going to be down by 15 per cent during 2010-11. Econometric analysis of 18 years monthly data on modal prices of Guntur market, to predict the chilli prices at harvest was carried out by the Market Intelligence Centre of Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University under NAIP Project. The results of the analysis supported by market survey indicated that price at the time of harvest would be Rs. 4000 to Rs.4200/q for varieties like LC334, US341, Indole5, BJ335, BS273, Guntur sangam and for Teja/Tejaswani it would be around Rs. 4800 to Rs. 5000/q. The farmers are advised to drench the nursery bed with Copper Oxichloride @ 2.5 grams/litre of water or Ridomil @ 2 gm/litre as a preventive measure against damping off in chillies.
Soybean is the single largest oilseed produced in the World. Soybean area and production has been continuously increasing year after year. World production of soybean for 2008-09 is projected at 224.10 million tonne, up by 1.47% as compared to 220.86 million tonne in 2007-08. The US accounts for 34% of world soybean production, while Brazil accounts 27%, Argentina 20%, China 7% and India contributes only 4% of the total global soybean production. Soybean area and production has been continuously increasing year after year. The production averaged at 226 million tons (from 2005-06 to 2009-10) from around 94.7 million-hectare areas. In 2009-10, the area under crop is seen at around 98.8 million hectares.
Domestic Scenario
Soybean is the most important oilseed among kharif oilseed crops. India is the fifth largest soybean producing country in the world. India harvested about 89 lakh tonne of soybean in 2008-09. The production is down by around 6% in 2008-09 from 94.60 lakh tonne in the 2007-2008.
Major production comes from Madhya Pradesh (53%), followed by Maharashtra (34%) and Rajasthan (8%). Madhya Pradesh accounts for 53% of domestic production with 55% acreage. Other producing states are Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Chattisgarh.
India is one of the major exporter of soya meal to the Asian countries. Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and China are some of the major importers of Soya Meal from India. Export of Soybean meal from India is averaged at around 3 million tons per annum. In recent years Soybean meal exports are increasing and stood at 4.2 million tons in the year 2008-09
Import of Soya oil: India is the third largest importer of Soya oil in the World. Soya oil import has decreased to 0.7 lakh tonnes in 2007-08 from 1.72 lakh tonnes in 2005-06. It is because of more imports of cheaper Palm oil in India.
In Andhra Pradesh, Soybean is sown during June-July period and harvested by October and peak arrivals will be there from October to December, generally lean In June and July months and remaining months are medium. Sowing is mainly confined to the districts of Nizamabad (0.36 lakh ha,) and Adilabad (0.65 lakh ha.) in Andhra Pradesh. In AP total sown area of soybean is 1.07 Lakh ha
According to the trade sources since four years the cropped area is increasing and this year also it is likely to increase about 20 per cent. Soybean price mainly depends upon oil imports, crop in USA, Brazil and rain fall factors. To forecast the prices of soybean for the months of October 2010, econometric analysis of modal prices of Soybean in Nizamabad market for a period of 8 years was carried out by Agricultural market Intelligence Centre of Department of agricultural Economics, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupathi, the results of which indicated that prices are likely to be around Rs. 1600 to 1800 per quintal. The recommended seed rate per acre is 30 kg. The farmers are advised to necessarily adopt seed treatment before sowing. The prices are likely to change with changes in edible oil import policy of Government of India.
The native home of sunflower is considered to be Mexico and Peru, introduced into India in the 16th century. Sunflower is one of the major edible vegetable oils consumed throughout the globe. The oil is used for culinary purposes, in the preparation of vanaspati and in the manufacture of soaps and cosmetics. Sunflower oil is a rich source (64%) of linoleic acid which helps in washing out cholesterol deposition in the coronary arteries of the heart and thus good for heart patients. The oil cake contains 40-44 per cent high quality protein. It is ideally suited for poultry and livestock rations. It can also be used for manufacturing baby foods. The sunflower kernels can be eaten raw or roasted.
World sunflower area accounts for 23.68 million hectares with a production of 33.77 million tonnes (2008-2009). Major cultivating countries are Russia (5 million hectares), Ukraine (3.4 million hectares), Eu-27 (3.34 million hectares), Argentina (2.58 million hectares), India (1.63million hectares), USA (0.81 million hectares) and China (0.8 million hectares) occupying about 84 per cent of the total world sunflower acreage. The average productivity of sunflower in India is very low at 701 kg/ ha as compared to other major producers. Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Russia and Romania are the major exporters contributing around 1.8 million tonnes of the total exports. Spain, Turkey, Netherlands, Italy and Germany together account for 70 per cent of the total imports.
In India, during 2009-10 sunflower was cultivated in 14 lakh hectares with a production of 8.23 lakh tonnes. The major states growing sunflower are Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Haryana. In India Andhra Pradesh with 29% in sunflower production occupies second position after Karnataka (40%). The major trading centers for sunflower oil are Mumbai, Chennai, and Hyderabad. In Andhra Pradesh, major sunflower growing districts are Kurnool, Anantapur, Kadapa, Chittoor, Prakasam and Mahaboobnagar.
In Andhra Pradesh, sunflower growing seasons are kharif (June to September), rabi (October to December) and summer (January to March).To help the farmers to take a decision on sowing of sunflower the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning at S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupathi had estimated prices that might prevail for sunflower during the harvesting period.
To forecast the prices of sunflower for the harvesting months (Sept 2010 and Oct 2010), econometric analysis of modal prices of sunflower in Kurnool market for a period of 14 years and Yemmiganoor market for a period of 11 years was carried out. Based on the model and traders’ opinion it is estimated that the prices are likely to range between Rs.2100 and Rs.2300 per quintal of sunflower seed. Based on the earlier cultivation experience, the farmers can choose the private company hybrids of their choice. The farmers are advised to maintain a spacing of 60 X 30 cm. Further the farmers can take note of the observation that 100ml of seed should weigh 40 gms before choosing the hybrid. The selected hybrid should be resistant to Tobacco streak virus. Thinning a week after germination should be practiced.
KHARIF PRE HARVEST PRICE FORECASTS: 2010-11
During kharif season of the current agricultural year 2010-11, the area of groundnut has crossed the normal sown area of 13.46 ha. standing at 13.50 lakh ha. During kharif season of 2009-10, the area was recorded at 10.11 lakh ha. Dry spells during the previous season has a telling affect on productivity and production of groundnut. The area under the crop remained almost constant in Gujarat and Maharashtra, while it has gone up in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The area increase in the state was contributed more by area increase in Rayalaseema region. The trade circles are anxiously waiting for the kharif production. Going by the extent of area under groundnut during the season, if it results in matching rise in production, the edible oil position may improve. But there are apprehensions about the possibility of decreased production due to heavy rains during crop growth period. Further the area under sunflower in kharif was reduced drastically. To advise the farmers on selling decision of kharif groundnut, econometric analysis of modal prices of groundnut was carried out by the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati taking the modal prices for 12 years from Kurnool and Yemmiganoor. Considering the results of the analysis, market survey and the government import policy on oils, price per quintal of groundnut pods during October –November would be around Rs. 2700 to Rs. 2800. The farmers are advised to dispose groundnut on harvest since storage will not result in increased prices.
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research has estimated that the area under maize has come down by 10 per cent in the present kharif season compared to the same period last year. But it was reported that yield will not be affected, due to good precipitation during flowering.
Maize production in India has grown by 60 per cent in the last one decade though the area under cultivation has not kept pace. Poultry companies (60%) are the single largest consumer, followed by starch industries (25%) and cattle feed and human consumption (25%). During 2009-10, the demand from poultry sector and livestock was 17 million tonnes, where as the production was 16 million tonnes. India is Asia’s second biggest grower and ready to harvest 19 million tonnes this season more than local demand as the area has crossed 72 lakh hectares in India.
The next crop is expected to be 15 to 20 per cent more over previous year and there will be adequate stocks in the new season. To forecast the prices of maize in the coming three months (October to December) econometric analysis of modal prices of maize in Nizamabad market for 11 years was carried out by the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of NAIP project functioning in the Dept. of Agricultural Economics, S.V.Agricultural College, Tirupati. According to the analysis, the price per quintal of maize would be around Rs. 900 to 950 in October 2010 and with the arrivals coming from Maharashtra the prices are expected to fall in the coming months going by the present market sentiments expressed by the traders. Therefore the farmers are advised to sell maize on harvest without resorting to storage.
Major soybean production in India is from Madhya Pradesh contributing 65-70 per cent, followed by Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Other producing states are Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh.
India exports about 65 per cent of total soybean mainly to the Asian countries namely South Korea, Thailand, Phillippines and Japan. Soybean meal exports are likely to be 4 million tonnes in 2010-11 season compared to 2.8 million tonnes in 2009-10 season. The country has a carry over stock of 5-6 lakh tonnes from the previous year. Meanwhile, according to the forecast made by the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), the national productivity of soybean is likely to go up. In Andhra Pradesh sowing is mainly confined to the districts of Nizamabad and Adilabad. To forecast the prices of soybean for the months of November 2010 to February 2011, econometric analysis of modal prices of soybean in Nizamabad Market for a period of 8 years was carried out and presented below given the present market sentiments. The demand for soybean in international market this year is on
| Month |
Forecasted Price Rs / Q |
| November 2010 |
1950 |
| December 2010 |
2183 |
| January 2011 |
2239 |
| February 2011 |
2256 |
the higher side , which is likely to influence the prices. Based on the price information given, the farmers are advised to take storage decision taking into account storage costs, and storage losses.
It was contemplated by the State Department of Agriculture in Andhra Pradesh in the beginning of kharif 2010-11, to cultivate sunflower in about 1.5 lakh ha against the normal acreage of 1.11 lakh ha with an intention of increasing the area by another 39,000 ha. But the actual area planted was approximately 33,000 ha compared to 89,000 ha and 92,000 ha in kharif 2008 and 2009 respectively. The favourable monsoon in a way prompted the farmer to shift to paddy, cotton and groundnut leading to the present situation in Andhra Pradesh. Since 2007, the sunflower area in kharif season was below normal. The sunflower productivity in kharif 2009 was 379 kg/ha as against 641 kg/ha in kharif 2008. The fall in yield was roughly 41 per cent which was attributed to failure of monsoon.
An increase in area under sunflower, an important edible oilseed, would reduce the burden of import of edible oils which may touch the peak of 90lakh tones during the current oil year.
The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) under NAIP functions in the Department of Agricultural Economics, S V Agricultural College, Tirupati attempted price trends of sunflower seeds in two important markets of Andhra Pradesh viz. Kurnool and Yemmiganur to help the farmers in taking decisions during the harvest. Inspite of the reduction in area, it is going to have little impact on prices. For next two to three months the price will revolve around Rs. 2550-2650 per qtl depending on quality parameters. Therefore the farmers are advised to sell the sunflower seeds upon harvest without resorting to storage which will not see adequate increase in prices.
PRE RABI SOWING FORECASTS: 2010-11
Oil seeds production is in general lower this year, with only real increase taking place in groundnut that too contributed by the significant area increase in Andhra Pradesh and moderately in Gujarat. Gujarat accounts for 40 per cent of groundnut production. The rest is produced by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. One of the recent observations made by the Executive Director of the Solvent Extractors Association of India is that as groundnut kernels are increasingly being used for human consumption, lesser quantities are becoming available for oil extraction. The distribution plan of seed for rabi groundnut is almost finalized by the State Department of Agriculture in Andhra Pradesh. The area under groundnut in the State is expected to be approximately around 2.75 lakh ha during the rabi 2010-11. The important varieties of groundnut recommended for Andhra Pradesh are Kadiri -6, Greeshma, Narayani and Abhaya. To enable the farmers to take better sowing decisions for rabi groundnut, modal prices that prevailed in two important groundnut markets viz., Kurnool and Yemmiganoor were analyzed to forecast the prices of groundnut during harvesting period i.e., February and March, 2011. According to the analysis, trader’s survey and going by the Government import policy of edible oils, the price per quintal would be around Rs. 2700 to Rs. 2900. To get good yields farmers are advised to maintain 44 plants per square meter. Application of gypsum @500kg per ha during pegging stage enhances the yield and oil out turn by 15-20 per cent in groundnut.
The major states growing sunflower are Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Haryana. In India, Andhra Pradesh with 29 per cent in production occupies second position after Karnataka.
The major sunflower growing districts in Andhra Pradesh are Kurnool, Ananthapur, Kadapa, Chittoor, Prakasam and Mahaboobnagar. The area under sunflower in the rabi season is expected to be 3 lakh ha.
To help the farmers to take sowing decisions of sunflower during rabi, the Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) functioning at S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati has forecasted the prices that might prevail for sunflower during the rabi harvest season. An econometric analysis of modal prices of sunflower in Kurnool market and Yammiganur market for a period of 11 years was carried out for the purpose. Based on the modal prices and market survey, it is estimated that the prices are likely to range between Rs.2400-Rs.2500 per quintal of sunflower seed. The farmers are advised to treat the sunflower seed with mancozab@3gms/kg of seed and maintain a spacing of 60 X 30 cms. Retaining only one plant at each point for a given recommended spacing, spraying of borax 0.2 % solution at the time of flowering and rubbing the flower heads with smooth cloth between 8-9 a.m on alternate days during flowering stage will enhance the yield and oil out turn by 10 -15 per cent in sunflower. Keeping honey bee boxes will improve the yield level.
Based on the above prices anticipated during harvest of rabi Sunflower the farmers may go in for sowing of sunflower in November 2010 and recommended to follow the above package of practices.
The requirement of pulses for the population of the country is around 18 to 19 million tonnes. The targeted production for this year (2010-2011) is 16.5 million tonnes and the gap of 3.5 to 4 million tonnes is expected to be bridged by the imports.
India stands first in bengal gram production with a share of 70 per cent of the global production as well as consumption in the world which accounts for 90 per cent of world production. However, in view of the domestic requirements, India had been importing bengal gram. The area in the country was 8.25 million ha with a productivity of 855 kg/ha (2008-09). The important states of bengal gram are Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. In Andhra Pradesh the State Department of Agriculture is planning to have bengal gram in an area of 6.65 lakh ha during rabi 2010-11 against 6.55 lakh ha during rabi season of 2009-10.
The important districts in the state are Prakasam, Kurnool, Kadapa, Ananthapur and Adilabad .To forecast the prices of bengal gram at the time of harvest (January and February 2011), econometric analysis of modal prices in Kurnool market was carried out by the Department of Agricultural Economics, S.V.Agricultural college, Tirupati. The results of the analysis along with the market survey have indicated that the prices would be likely to hover around MSP of Rs. 2100 per quintal, given the present market sentiments.
The farmers are advised to adopt seed treatment with Thiram or Captan @ 3gms/kg of seed. It is generally a rain fed crop but when irrigation is available, irrigating the field around 35 days and 55 days of sowing would increase the yields.
It was contemplated by the State Department of Agriculture in Andhra Pradesh in the beginning of
kharif 2010-11, to cultivate sunflower in about 1.5 lakh ha against the normal acreage of 1.11
lakh ha with an intention of increasing the area by another 39,000 ha. But the actual area
planted was approximately 33,000 ha compared to 89,000 ha and 92,000 ha in kharif 2008 and 2009
respectively. The favourable monsoon in a way prompted the farmer to shift to paddy, cotton and
groundnut leading to the present situation in Andhra Pradesh. Since 2007, the sunflower area in
kharif season was below normal. The sunflower productivity in kharif 2009 was 379 kg/ha as
against 641 kg/ha in kharif 2008. The fall in yield was roughly 41 per cent which was attributed
to failure of monsoon.
An increase in area under sunflower, an important edible oilseed, would reduce the burden of import of edible oils which
may touch the peak of 90lakh tones during the current oil year.
The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) under NAIP functions in the Department of Agricultural Economics, S V
Agricultural College, Tirupati attempted price trends of sunflower seeds in two important markets of Andhra Pradesh viz.
Kurnool and Yemmiganur to help the farmers in taking decisions during the harvest. Inspite of the reduction in area, it is
going to have little impact on prices. For next two to three months the price will revolve around Rs. 2550-2650 per qtl
depending on quality parameters. Therefore the farmers are advised to sell the sunflower seeds upon harvest without
resorting to storage which will not see adequate increase in prices.
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